Following the detention of a British backpacker by U.S. immigration officials for nearly three weeks, after which she urged others to avoid traveling to the United States, there has been a notable decrease in tourism from the UK.
Official figures indicate a 14.3% drop in the number of UK residents visiting the U.S. in March compared to the same month in 2024.
Analysts suggest that statements made by Donald Trump, alleging that other countries were "cheating" Americans, coupled with reports of deportations, may have contributed to a decline in travel to the U.S. The March decrease could be an early indicator of a more significant drop during the summer, as tourists typically book their holidays well in advance.
David Edwards, founder of the Scattered Clouds travel consultancy, noted that most trips for July, August, and September would have already been booked. He also suggested that reduced global trade could lead to a decrease in international business travel, which is typically booked with less lead time and is more susceptible to uncertainty.
The timing of Easter makes it challenging to analyze travel company data in the spring. While the Easter school holidays falling in March 2024 could be a factor in the comparative drop, data from the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office reveals an even larger decrease of 16% compared to March 2019, when Easter occurred on April 21 and Trump was nearing the end of his first term.
Travelers from other countries also appeared to avoid the U.S. in March, with visitors from Western Europe staying at least one night in the U.S. down 17% year-on-year. Specifically, German visitors decreased by 28.2%, and Spanish visitors by 24.6% compared to 2024. Overall, global travel to the U.S. was down 11.6%. UK residents constitute the largest group of overseas visitors to the U.S., with 3.9 million annually.
A recent poll by the travel industry magazine TTG indicated that two-thirds of travel agents surveyed believed there had been a downturn in bookings, with only 12% of operators reporting no impact on their business. There are indications that demand for hotel rooms in the U.S. may also be declining. Jan Freitag, national director of hospitality analytics at CoStar, which tracks hotel room occupancy, stated that the strong dollar had led to an 8% fall in visitors in 2024.
Freitag expressed concern that current rhetoric could lead to continued travel numbers below 2019 levels, potentially decelerating from 2024. He noted that a nationalistic tone may discourage potential visitors.
Research conducted by VisitBritain in 2022 identified "destination is a welcoming place to visit" as the second most important factor for international travelers when choosing a holiday.
Following publicized deportations of tourists, including Germans and Australians, the UK and German governments have updated their travel advice to warn citizens of potential risks. These incidents may also negatively impact the appeal of the 2026 World Cup, scheduled to take place in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, with the later knockout stages entirely in the U.S., as well as the Los Angeles Olympics in 2028, according to Freitag.
Freitag raised concerns that potential visitors might be deterred by the risk of being denied entry into the country.
Clare Collins, co-founder and chief operations officer for CT Business Travel, anticipates a decline in leisure travel to the U.S. during the summer but has not yet observed any impact on business travel.
Collins stated that while they are not currently seeing any dramatic effects on business travel, the situation could change rapidly. She believes that in the long term, individuals may opt to spend their money on leisure travel elsewhere.
Edwards suggested that if the March decline develops into a significant drop in travelers from the UK, airlines may begin to cut routes, which could subsequently affect the British economy.
The UK travel industry's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic was largely attributed to American tourists traveling to Europe, supported by a strong dollar that made hotels in cities like London and Paris more affordable.
Edwards posited that Europeans may perceive the U.S. as less welcoming, while Americans may question how welcome they would be in Europe.
