The English local council elections on May 1st represent a significant test for the Labour, Reform, and Conservative parties, which are currently in a close race according to national polls. The Liberal Democrats also aim to perform well in their strongholds, with a major goal of surpassing the Conservatives as the second-largest party in local government.
The Conservatives face a considerable challenge as they defend the majority of seats across more than 900 wards, won during Boris Johnson's peak popularity in 2021. Among the 23 authorities holding elections, 19 are Conservative-controlled, with only one under Labour's control and the remainder under no overall control. Approximately 1,600 seats and six mayoralties are at stake.
Labour seeks to gain a substantial number of seats, viewing these elections as an important indicator of their performance since the general election. While the party holds a narrow lead in many opinion polls, governing parties often encounter difficulties in local elections, especially during periods of economic instability.
Reform has the potential to make numerous gains, although elections in some key areas have been postponed. Despite having a less developed ground campaign compared to its rivals, the party has achieved success in certain by-elections, regardless of local organizational strength.
The Liberal Democrats possess strong local organizing capabilities, while the Green Party and various independent parties hope to capitalize on any lack of enthusiasm for Labour. Key areas to watch include:
Labour's Pursuit of Swing Councils
The primary battle in many regions is expected to be between Labour and the Conservatives. Labour aims to seize control of councils that typically swing between these two major parties.
Derbyshire, which has alternated between Conservative and Labour control for decades and has been predominantly Conservative since 2017, is a key target. With Labour already controlling Derby city council, the East Midlands mayoralty, and the police and crime commissioner position, the party views the county council as the final component. While Reform's increased number of candidates could pose a challenge, it may also draw votes from the Conservatives, potentially facilitating a Labour victory.
Similarly, Lancashire saw increased Labour support in the last general election, and the party hopes to unseat the Conservatives at the county council level. Although the council has been held by both parties in the past, the Conservatives have controlled it since 2017.
Labour vs. Reform in the 'Red Wall'
Reform's leader, Nigel Farage, has emphasized his focus on Labour's traditional base in the north of England, a strategy he has pursued with various parties in the past. Current polls suggest he may achieve greater success this time.
During a rally in Labour-held Doncaster, where Ed Miliband serves as the MP, Farage expressed his party's aspirations to win the mayoralty and several council seats. This is an ambitious goal in a historically Labour area, although the far-right English Democrats have previously performed well in the town.
In Durham, the council is currently composed of 49 Labour councillors, 32 independents, 17 Conservatives, 15 Liberal Democrats, and four from Reform. The significant number of independent councillors and the increased presence of Reform candidates create a highly competitive environment.
Another significant contest is taking place in Runcorn and Helsby, where a by-election was triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Mike Amesbury. While Labour is expected to retain the seat, Reform is dedicating substantial resources to the area, aiming for a second-place finish.
Liberal Democrats Challenge Conservatives in the South-West
The Liberal Democrats believe they have the potential to be major beneficiaries of the local elections, particularly in the south-west and south. They are targeting Devon and Cornwall, where the Conservatives dominate the county councils, but the Liberal Democrats exceeded expectations in the general election.
The party also aims to challenge the Conservatives in Gloucestershire, potentially resulting in no overall control of the council, although Labour also poses a challenge there.
Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey launched his party's campaign in Oxfordshire, where they lead a minority administration. The Liberal Democrats are campaigning on issues such as the NHS, social care, sewage, and local concerns, with the goal of surpassing the Conservatives as the second-largest party in local government.
Reform Aims at Conservative Rural Strongholds
Although elections in Essex and East Anglia, where Reform is believed to be strongest, have been postponed, the party still hopes to win seats from the Conservatives elsewhere. They are targeting the Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty, fielding former Conservative MP Andrea Jenkyns as their candidate. The council has historically swung between Conservative control and no overall control, but Reform views it as promising territory, given their previous success in electing an MP, Richard Tice, in Boston, and having had some councillors elected. Historically, the county has been a Conservative stronghold.
Reform has a lower chance of success in Staffordshire, which has been Conservative since 2009, but the party aims to erode the Conservatives' dominant position. During a visit to the Rocester headquarters of JCB, controlled by Conservative donor Lord Bamford, Farage claimed his party could win "many, many seats" in the county.
The Rise of Independents and Greens
The Green Party is not contesting elections in its traditionally strong areas, such as Brighton and East Anglia, this time. However, it is considered a potential contender for a surprise victory in the West of England mayoralty, which includes Bristol and could be a closely contested five-way race. The party also has opportunities to gain seats in areas such as Gloucestershire and Oxfordshire. Independent candidates are expected to perform well, as voters dissatisfied with the available choices turn to local parties. Issues such as the war in Gaza, the climate crisis, and welfare cuts have led many on the left to feel disenfranchised and more inclined to vote for independent options.
